More Web 2.0 and Politics - Predictions

MSNBC today reports on how the Internet is affecting political campaigning. As I've been saying for some time now, Web 2.0 phenomenon changes everything. Barack Obama has energized over 130,000 contributors to date and has a far wider contributor base than any other Democratic candidate. His online efforts focus on building communities of interest, around ideals and issues. The effects of online campaigning will be felt long after this current race has concluded.

Here are some predictions.

1. The dialog won' stop after the election. Savvy politicians will continue to cultivate their bases, explain their position, strengthen the bonds between support base and themselves. This is an especially important point for the eventual winners.

2. Web 2.0 encourages dialog between ALL interested parties. This campaign isn't about the candidates just talking to crowds. It's about them talking to crowds who share their values. It's about those supporters talking to each other. And it's about those supporters helping to spread the word. Those politicians who understand this will win.

3. Perhaps as soon as this election, any politician who refers to "the internets" or "the Google", will be immediately written off as being out of touch. Being Internet savvy will become a criteria upon which to judge a candidate - a "relevancy filter".

4. Internet campaigning will help engage a younger demographic. Internet campaigns most importantly will engage first time voters, a full two years before their first election. Old white male politicians beware! Watch for voter registrations among first time voters to jump, over previous elections.

5. Can Web 2.0 generate lifelong candidate support? If these politicians identify and capture their support base early, (in their twenties) and are authentic (vote their personal values rather than their party line), they may be able to retain this support across elections, possibly for decades. Instead of lifelong Republicans or lifelong Democrats, we might have lifelong Huckabee supporters or lifelong Clinton supporters. Watch for candidate support to begin to trump party support.

6. The Internet strategy is far cheaper and far more effective that the mass-marketing strategy that campaigns currently employ. While it will be some time before we see the death of TV campaign commercials, they are becoming less relevant. The 2008 election will be won on "word of mouth", spread in blogs, and spread in people's homes. The Internet will be THE mainstream campaigning tool, post 2008 elections. This may help break down the mandatory fundraising barrier and pave the way for a broader field of candidates in future. More choice can't be bad for the process.

7. We may be seeing a tipping point in how campaigns are run. The Internet allows people to be "heard" in venues other than the 30 second sound bite. It allows for a thoughtful explanation of a vote or a point of view, that doesn't get reported (at least with any immediacy) anywhere else. It allows politicians control over their message. The recent TV debates demonstrate the weakness of TV as a campaigning medium, where short, unexplained answers to questions can't demonstrate what a candidate is all about. Post review discussions were constrained to whether a candidate made a "gaffe" or not. I don't think this format is the way that thoughtful Americans want to choose their next leaders. it was strikingly similar to American Idol (without the voting)!

8. Candidates beware! Authenticity matters. If candidates come off as "spinning a party line" or as being phony in some sense, their support will evaporate in a heartbeat. The Web offers immediacy. And that can work for you or against you.

Let's see how many of these predictions come to pass.