Tuesday, February 05, 2008

For Your Consideration.....First Independent President?

I'm fascinated by the Presidential candidate nomination process currently underway. It's interesting so see how each state handles the allocation of delegates (some representational, some winner take all) and then how the entire process is morphed by the impact of super-delegates.

Super-delegates number 842 of the Democratic delegates. They comprise leaders and influencers from within the party. And this year, they'll decide the nominee.

It seems to me that this mix might traditionally lean heavily towards "traditional" candidates - to well connected "establishment" candidates - to those who have the longest history within the party.

The process seems designed to reinforce the status quo.

If I'm right, this will make for a fascinating convention against a campaign backdrop where the buzzword is "change".

The public polling on the Democratic side appears to predict a dead heat between Clinton and Obama. After today (Super Tuesday), many anticipate the the Democratic nomination will still be up for grabs.

While all this is very exciting for the country (at least for Democrats), it seems to me that the eventual candidate will be determined by these super-delegates.

Why is it that this isn't getting more press? Why isn't the main stream media polling these super delegates to see which way they're leaning?

And let me pose one other scenario.

How might the race for the Presidency be changed if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination as a result of the super-delegates and perhaps the best funded candidate (Obama) decides to run as an independent?

Conceivably this is an option for him.

He is extemely well funded. The current dissatisfaction with all the Republican candidates could cause some to defect to an independent candidate - even if that candidate was Barack Obama.

If you're a Democrat, don't worry, this scenario has as much chance of coming true as the Giants have of winning the Super Bowl.

If you're a Republican, you might root for this to happen. An independent Barack Obama competing against a Democratic nominee could easily split that vote, enabling a Republican to win, in a year when they're not supposed to.

This could be great theatre.

[Note: As a permanent resident, I don't have a vote. I'm just a fascinated observer of the process.]

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